Don’t celebrate the IMF’s outlook just yet: How resilient is India’s growth story in a fractured world?

Globally, inflation is projected to rise from 4.1% in 2025 to 4.4% in 2026, driven by energy and food shocks. India saw inflation ease in 2025 due to subdued food prices, but the IMF expects inflation to return to the 4% level as global pressures build. India’s wholesale inflation was already at 3.9% year-on-year in March, up from 2.1% in February, driven by higher prices of crude, power and manufactured goods amid the war.