Prime Minister Mark Carney considered the possibility that President Donald Trump might use the US military to further his goal of making Canada part of the United States, The New York Times reported.
In an interview, Carney told the NYT that the scenario could not be ignored. But, in the same interview, Carney disclosed that he and President Trump have spoken “frequently,” since trade talks collapsed last month, describing a tense, evolving relationship between the two leaders.
When pressed on whether he took Trump’s threats to make Canada a 51st state seriously, Carney suggested that he had carefully examined the possibility of US- led military action.
“I think you have a responsibility in these roles to look at extreme tail risk,” said Carney, a former central banker for Britain and Canada
Carney did not go into detail about the military threat in the NYT interview, but used financial markets terminology to characterise the risks.
“That’s just risk management. That’s not a base case, but it would be irresponsible not to” prepare.
Canada is one of the United States’ closest trade and military partners, but the relationship between the giant neighbours has been rocked by Trump’s trade war and insistence that he wants to make Canada the 51st state of the US.
Negotiations to ease the trade war broke down on 21 August. Prime Minister Carney has repeatedly told President Trump that Canada will never become part of the United States. Polls show many Canadians no longer believe that the United States is a friendly neighbour.
Any conflict would likely be highly imbalanced, the BBC reported. The US military has more than 2 million active-duty and reserve troops, while Canada has fewer than 200,000, according to their governments, as reported by the BBC. Similarly, as of 2024, the US possessed 65 military submarines, compared to Canada’s four, the report said.
Canada, though, has the longest coastline in the world and is close to the Arctic, two circumstances that have prompted Carney to boost defence spending since he took office, the BBC said.
Trump wants to make Canada 51st State of the US
President Donald Trump has often spoken about his ambition of making Canada as the “51st state” of the United States of America. He has wished the same for Venezuela.
Trump also started a trade war with Canada. Things turned from bad to worse last month when the two neighbouring nations began imposing tit-for-tat tariffs on a number of products.
Even since then, Carney told the NYT, he speaks with Trump “frequently”.
“From my perspective, we have a good relationship in the sense of we can pick up the phone and talk to each other about issues,” he said in the interview
“He’s direct. I’m direct in terms of where positions are. It’s much more efficient that way, and so you know that exists and that will continue to exist.”
\”I think you have a responsibility in these roles to look at extreme tail risk.\”
PM Mark Carney said in the NYT interview that he believed there was still a path to resume trade negotiations with the US since returning to their amicable ties would be beneficial for both countries.
(With inputs from AFP and BBC)
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