Tamil Nadu government formation: Can Vijay be CM without a majority? Governor’s role, TVK options explained

Tamil Nadu government formation: Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) chief Vijay met Tamil Nadu Governor Rajendra Arlekar once again on 7 May as uncertainty hangs over the formation of the next state government.

Vijay, whose party won 108 seats in its debut election, met the Governor on Wednesday too, staking a claim to form the next government. The Governor was, however, not convinced and instead asked Vijay to come up with proof that he can head a majority government.

For now, Vijay’s TVK has 108 seats and Congress, with 5 MLAs, has decided to extend support to the debutant party. This means TVK+ Congress have 113 MLAs, five short of 118, the majority mark in the 234-member Tamil Nadu assembly.

“Things will end well soon,” news agency PTI quoted TVK MLA VS Babu as saying

Vijay was ready for a quick swearing-in ceremony today, which has been delayed for now. There were four senior colleagues expected to take the oath along with Vijay before seeking two weeks to prove a majority on the Assembly floor.

Amid speculation over possible realignments, there were reprts that Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK)and All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK) had informally explored the possibility of Dravidian parties coming together to form a government.

While TVK has 108 seats, the DMK has 59 and the AIADMK has 47 seats.

Outgoing Chief Minister MK Stalin, however, signalled that the DMK would not immediately attempt to destabilise a potential TVK government. In an interview with the Times of India, Stalin said the DMK would “wait for TVK leader C Joseph Vijay to form the government” and “watch without disturbing for six months.”

Clearly, the TVK, which contested its debut election, has not only outperformed both the Dravidian parties – the DMK and the AIADMK – it has also pushed the state towards a hung Assembly. When no party or alliance gets a simple majority, 118 seats in this case, then it is considered a hung Assembly. Vijay won from two seats and will vacate now. This will bring the majority mark to 117 in 233-strong house.

What options does TVK have? As uncertainty looms, there are many scenarios that can emerge in Tamil Nadu

Coalition with smaller parties

Vijay can also expect support from small parties like Pattali Makkal Katchi, UML, CPI(M) Viduthalai Chiruthaigal Katchi, and CPI.

The most convenient route for TVK would be securing support from two or more smaller parties, most likely CPI, PMK and DMDK, allowing it to comfortably cross the majority mark.

With 2 MLAs, the VCK, an ally of the DMK, was yet to take a decision. The Left parties and the IUML ruled out providing support to Vijay’s party, PTI news added. The CPI(M), CPI, and IUML legislators asserted that they would continue to support DMK. All three parties have 2 MLAs each.

Outside support from AIADMK

A second, more politically complex option would be outside support from AIADMK, which is said to have sought time to meet the governor. The AIADMK has 47 MLAs.

Speculation about a possible TVK-AIADMK understanding has existed for months. But the BJP, an AIADMK ally, remains a bone of contention, since TVK has repeatedly signalled unwillingness to align with the BJP.

To have a formal or informal arrangement with TVK, the AIADMK must exit the BJP-led NDA.

Blast from the past

While the Governor is well within his rights to seek proof for a majority government from Vijay, there have, however, been occasions when the Governor asked parties or coalitions to form governments without a majority.

The recent examples when Governors invited parties to form governments despite lacking a clear majority include Maharashtra in 2019 when the Governor Bhagat Singh Koshyari swore in Devendra Fadnavis and Ajit Pawar in an early morning ceremony without firm numbers.

The role of Governor

In 2018 in Karnataka, Governor Vajubhai Vala invited BS Yediyurappa to take oath without the veteran BJP leader having a clear majority in the house.

Experts said there is no question of the Governor first ascertaining whether a person has a majority inside the Raj Bhawan, and then asking for that majority to be proved again on the floor of the House.

“The Governor cannot avoid convening the House. He can ask anyone whom he believes commands the confidence of the house to form the government. A motion of confidence can be sought, and even a person without a prior electoral majority can win the motion if the opposition present and voting does not decide to vote against the motion,” senior advocate Sanjay Hegde wrote on X

In case no party or coalition is able to prove a majority, one can expect a President’s rule or a fresh election in Tamil Nadu as the last resort.

Can the governor call the single-largest party to form govt?

There have been many commissions who have answered this question. As per Sarkaria Commission Report (1983) which discusses the Role of Governor, if there is a single party having an absolute majority in the Assembly, the leader of the party should automatically be asked to become the Chief Minister.

However, if there is no such party, the Governor should select a Chief Minister from among the following parties or group of parties by sounding them, in turn, in the order of preference indicated below:

-An alliance of parties that was formed prior to the elections.

-The largest single party staking a claim to form the government with the support of others, including “independents.”

-A post-electoral coalition of parties, with all the partners in the coalition joining the Government.

-A post-electoral alliance of parties, with some of the parties in the alliance forming a Government and the remaining parties, including “independents”, supporting the Government from outside.

The Sarkaria Commission report has been cited extensively in many Supreme Court judgments, according to legal news website Bar and Bench. Many of the Sarkaria Commission’s recommendations regarding Article 356 were endorsed. In SR Bommai v. Union of India (1994), the SC held that the Governor must invite the leader of the party commanding a majority in the House, or the single-largest party/group, to form the Government.

(With inputs from Bar and Bench)