Currency managers watch out: the Federal Reserve under Warsh is turning out more hawkish than many expected

It will not be all smooth sailing for the dollar. Trump’s sweeping tariffs announced in April 2025 and the ham-handed calculations behind them were a fiasco. His intensified threats against Jerome Powell, Warsh’s predecessor, and efforts to oust another Fed governor, Lisa Cook, were an assault on the independence of the institution. The dollar fell 8% against major currencies last year, and for a while ‘Sell America’ was the mantra in trading rooms.