Where would India stand in latest FIFA Rankings if Blue Tigers draw, win or lose against Brazil? Scenarios explained

The draw against Panama in Bengaluru last week has offered encounraging signs for Indian football. Facing the 44th ranked side, who just featured in the FIFA World Cup a couple of months back in the United States, the 138-th ranked India stunned the opposition with a first-half lead. Although Panama equalised in the second half, but the 1-1 scoreline gave a major psychological boost to Khalid Jamil’s boys.

Certainly, the matches against Brazil and Uruguay on October 3 and 6 respectively at the Saltlake Stadium in Kolkata, will serve as a real test to Jamil’s whether his emerging blueprint can truly travel or not. One a top-100 side in the world, India’s performance dipped in recent times. The draw against Panama can be a start of a new uprising in Indian football.

While India remained static at 138th position in the latest FIFA Ranking, Panama slipped two places to be placed 46th. With Brazil coming to India with a young side, there is still a hope for the Blue Tigers. Marquinhos, Bruno Guimarães and Vinicius Junior are the most notable senior names in Carlo Ancelotti’s squad. Raphinha has been released due to injury.

One of the major talking points will be, will India rise in the FIFA rankings, even if they manage to play a draw?

How are FIFA Ranking points calculated?

The FIFA Ranking points is calculated by the Elo method which includes addition or subtraction for individual matches to/from a team’s existing point total. The points which are added or subtracted are partially determined by the relative strength of the two opponents, including the logical expectation that teams higher in the ranking should fare better against teams lower in the ranking. The formula has been termed as SUM.

The formula for the SUM algorithm is – P = Pbefore + I * (W – We).

Pbefore: Points before the match

I: importance of match. For India, I will be considered as 10 since the match is happening in the International Match Calendar window.

W: result of the match (1 = win; 0.5 = draw; 0 = defeat)

We: expected result of the match. Formula – 1 / (10(-dr/600) + 1)

dr=difference in ratings of the two playing teams, i.e. (Pbefore of Team A – Pbefore of Team B)

India’s current FIFA Ranking points: 1088.12

Brazil’s current FIFA Ranking points: 1805.91

Scenario 1: If India beat Brazil

Calculating with the above-mentioned formula, India would gain approximately 3.888 points, which would take them to 1,092.01 ranking points. In that case, India’s new ranking points would take them to 136th spot, ahead of Phillipines (1089.27 at 137) and Malaysia (1091.02 at 136).

Scenario 2: If India draw against Brazil

A draw against Brazil would make India drop points. Calculating with the same formula, India’s FIFA Ranking points would drop from 1088.12 to 1,087.01, a decrease by approximately 1.11 points. In that case, India would stay at the same position or drop in rankings depending on the results of teams around India in the list.

Scenario 3: If India lose against Brazil

A loss to Brazil will impact India massively. Calculating with the same formula, India’s FIFA Ranking points would drop from 1088.12 to 1082.01 – a massive loss of 6.112 points. Going by the current FIFA Rankings, it would not cost India any ranking. Having said that, a lot will depend on the matches of other teams who are around India.

NOTE: The formula to calculate the FIFA Ranking points is taken from FIFA’s official website.