The annual meetings of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank in Bangkok provided a timely opportunity to step back from immediate domestic preoccupations and reflect on the forces reshaping the global economic order.
My central takeaway from a week of high-level discussions is clear: economic resilience can no longer be measured merely by an economy’s ability to withstand external shocks. True resilience must be defined by an economy’s capacity to adapt, create quality jobs and sustain inclusive growth.
Across sessions, the conversations repeatedly returned to employment, primary healthcare, agriculture, value-added manufacturing, tourism, artificial intelligence (AI) and infrastructure investment. The overarching challenge for policymakers worldwide is to translate macroeconomic numbers and technological advances into tangible improvements in everyday lives.
Resilience is not strength
The global economy continues to demonstrate resilience, but underlying vulnerabilities are becoming harder to ignore. Geopolitical tensions, energy market volatility, trade fragmentation and mounting public debt are rapidly narrowing the room available to policymakers.
The IMF’s projected global growth of 3.1% for 2026 is a sober reminder that resilience should not be confused with economic strength. As multilateral leaders observed, global growth has remained trapped near this modest level for several years.
For India, the implications are significant.
A heavy dependence on imported energy leaves us vulnerable to price shocks, while broader global uncertainty can destabilize capital flows, exchange rates and export demand. While our large domestic market provides a vital cushion, it cannot insulate us indefinitely. The solution is not to retreat from global integration, but to deepen our resilience through diversified trade partnerships, competitive manufacturing, sound macroeconomic management and stronger integration into global value chains.
Growth must create jobs
Among the most compelling themes discussed in Bangkok was employment. The World Bank leadership highlighted a stark demographic reality: over the next 10-15 years, approximately 1.2 billion young people in developing countries will reach working age, but current trends suggest only about 400 million jobs will be created.
This is a critical warning for India. High GDP growth is necessary, but the quality of that growth matters just as much as its pace. Growth must generate productive employment, raise household incomes and expand opportunities beyond a few select sectors and metropolitan hubs.
Labour-intensive manufacturing, tourism, healthcare, logistics and modern services deserve far greater policy attention alongside capital-intensive technology sectors. Micro, small and medium enterprises (MSMEs) are especially crucial due to their massive job creation potential. They require simpler regulatory frameworks, easier credit access, appropriate technology and stronger market linkages. Ultimately, the true test of investment is not just how much capital an economy attracts, but how effectively that capital builds productive capacity and creates sustainable jobs.
Harnessing AI beyond the tech majors
AI was another dominant focus. It was encouraging to see India routinely cited alongside the US and China in global AI discussions. However, the meetings underscored a critical distinction between frontier, large-scale AI models and smaller, practical applications.
The gains from AI will not automatically trickle down to smaller economies, MSMEs or ordinary workers. While India’s tech talent, information technology sector and digital public infrastructure offer immense advantages, these strengths must translate into widespread productivity gains in agriculture, healthcare, education and small business operations.
In this digital context, a related insight stood out: data is the new collateral.
Reliable data footprint can help assess creditworthiness and unlock formal financing for micro enterprises and individuals lacking conventional physical assets. Harnessing this potential, however, requires robust data governance, strict privacy safeguards, and responsible usage.
Policy discipline and systemic risks
The proceedings reinforced the imperative of disciplined fiscal and monetary management. Surging public debt leaves governments with minimal fiscal space to respond to future crises. Unfocused subsidies compound these strains, whereas targeted spending on infrastructure, skill development, and climate resilience builds long-term economic capacity. For central banks, maintaining price stability remains non-negotiable—sustainable growth cannot be built on persistent inflation.
In the financial sector, robust bank balance sheets are necessary, but no longer sufficient. Governance, cybersecurity and operational risk management have become equally critical. As digitalization deepens financial inclusion, it also creates new vulnerabilities.
The unveiling of the Bangkok Blueprint for Fraud Resilient Financial Services marked a crucial recognition of digital fraud as a systemic risk—one that demands coordinated action across governments, regulators, financial institutions, telecommunications firms and tech platforms.
From ideas to execution
The World Bank’s latest update projects India’s economy to grow at 7.1% in financial year 2027, driven by resilient domestic demand. While this underlines India’s role as an engine of global growth, it should also sharpen our focus on internal structural reforms.
My key takeaway from Bangkok is that the world does not lack good ideas; it faces the far harder task of converting them into measurable outcomes. For India, the window of opportunity is vast, but success is not automatic. Sustaining high-quality growth will require disciplined policies, job-led economic strategy, responsible technology adoption and effective mobilization of private capital.
Our ultimate success will be judged by whether we emerge from today’s global uncertainties with a more productive economy, stronger institutions, and better opportunities for the next generation.
Ravi Duvvuru is the founder and designated partner of Duvvuru & Reddy LLP and a member of the Reserve Bank of India’s advisory group on regulations. He recently attended the IMF-World Bank Group Annual Meetings in Bangkok.
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