Tracking TMC, Shiv Sena and other defections: Can the NDA secure a two-thirds majority in Lok Sabha?

On 17 April this year, the Bharatiya Janata Party-led National Democratic Alliance government failed to pass a contentious delimitation Bill – linked to women’s reservation – due to a united opposition vote.

The government needed 352 votes in the Lok Sabha but secured only 298, while 230 members voted against the bill.

Two months later, the parliament is staring at a defection-powered realignment that could help pass the once-defeated Bill.

Defections in the Trinamool Congress, speculation on some MPs of the Shiv Sena (Uddhav Balasaheb Thackeray) camp jumping ship, the exit of the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) from the INDIA bloc following the Congress ending its alliance with the party, and seven AAP MPs moving to the BJP, have come one after the other as the saffron party is looking to cobble support to reintroduce the same Bill.

The buzz over Samajwadi Party MPs switching sides has added to the speculation. In the current what is-member Lok Sabha, the NDA has 293 members and needs 362 to pass the bill.

NDA numbers in Rajya Sabha

While the current round of Rajya Sabha elections will help the NDA inch toward the two-thirds mark. In the Lok Sabha, it is still far from that magic figure of 362, despite the TMC switchover which is yet to be formalised.

From its current strength of 148 MPs, the NDA is set to gain three seats in the current round of Rajya Sabha elections by winning the independent seats in Jharkhand and Mizoram, where elections are being held.

With three TMC MPs resigning, the NDA is set to secure all three seats from West Bengal after the bypolls, upping its tally to 154, nine short of a two-thirds majority in the Upper House.

As more TMC MPs are likely to resign in the Upper House, the NDA may achieve the figure of 163, which will give it the numerical strength to pass all constitutional amendment bills.

The ruling alliance’s strength may decrease by November when 10 MPs from Uttar Pradesh retire, and the Samajwadi Party may gain some seats in the Rajya Sabha, with its improved numerical strength in the state assembly.

The Opposition INDIA bloc currently has 64 MPs on its side, after the exit of DMK with eight MPs and AAP with three MPs distancing itself from the grouping. Independent parties such as YSRCP and BJD, with seven and six seats, and MDMK, can go either way in the Rajya Sabha.

How numbers stack up with Lok Sabha for NDA?

In the Lok Sabha, however, the NDA’s numbers can go up to 213 if 20 TMC MPs, who have formed a separate group by ‘merging’ with NCPI, and supporting it, get Lok Sabha speaker’s approval.

The defected MPs are set to meet Speaker Om Birla on Monday and hand over a letter announcing their separation from the TMC. In the Lok Sabha, 362 MPs are needed to get a two-thirds majority.

With the 20 MPs of the TMC defectors, the NDA’s tally could rise to 313. It will be still 49 short of a two-thirds majority.

And even if six Shiv Sena (UBT) defectors join NDA, the ruling alliance will be short of 43 from two-third majority in the lower house. Even with the support of 22 DMK MPs, the NDA would still need 21 more for two-thirds majority in Lok Sabha.

DMK has been against delimitation bill. Supporting any such legislation is nearly impossible for the MK Stalin-led party.

Comparison with April numbers

During the voting for the Delimitation Bill in April, the NDA got 298 votes in favour, of the total 528 MPs who were present at the time of voting in Lok Sabha. The ruling alliance fell short by 54 votes.

And if one adds 20 TMC defectors to April’s 298, the numbers for BJP-led alliance rise to 318. Adding six Shiv Sena MPs would take it to 324. Yet, the ruling alliance falls short of 28.

And even if 22 DMK MPs voting for a reworked delimitation Bill, the government still remains short of 6. DMK’s support for the Delimitation Bill is ery unlikely due to DMK’s consistent stand against it in the past.